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USC vs. Oregon 2023 College Football Week 11 Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine

USC was a preseason Top 10 team in the country and favored to win the Pac-12 title in its final season playing in it. Quarterback Caleb Williams was the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner and favored to win it again this year. While the season started out well, the Trojans have lost three of four and are unranked as they visit No. 6 Oregon on Saturday.

USC holds a 38-22-2 lead in its series with Oregon, not including one win vacated due to NCAA penalty. Oregon has not faced USC since a 31-24 win in the 2020 Pac-12 Championship Game in Los Angeles, and the last time USC visited Eugene was a 48-28 UO victory on Nov. 21, 2015.

USC Trojans vs. Oregon Ducks Game Information

  • When: Saturday, November 11, 2023, 10:30 PM ET
  • Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
  • TV: FOX
  • Radio: 790 KABC (USC) // KWVA 88.1 FM (Oregon)
  • Live Stream: FOX Sports
  • College Football Odds: USC (+15) // Oregon (-15)

Why Bet on the USC Trojans?

How bad have things gotten for USC (7-3)? High respected defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was fired after the Trojans were spanked at home by No. 5 Washington last Saturday, 52-42. Huskies running back Dillon Johnson tore up that USC defense with 256 yard and four scores. Some around the program believe the move came too late; Grinch’s defensive unit struggled last season and continued its poor play through the conference slate this year.

USC head coach Lincoln Riley said that the decision was made with two games left in USC’s regular season in large part because the Trojans still have “a lot to play for” this year. While the Trojans won’t make the College Football Playoff, they would need to beat Oregon and UCLA in their last two matchups and receive some major help to get back to the Pac-12 title game.

“We simply weren’t making the progress I think we all expected to make. If we were in a situation where we didn’t have a whole lot left to play for in terms of a conference championship, I might feel a little bit different,” Riley said of making the move. “But we are very laser focused on these opportunities ahead, and then whatever comes next after that, we’ll deal with it at the appropriate time.”

Even as USC used the transfer portal to bring in defensive players such as former Georgia lineman Bear Alexander and ex-Oklahoma State linebacker Mason Cobb, the performance of the unit did not improve. USC is allowing an average of 34.5 points per game this season and was in the bottom 30 in the country in nearly every statistical category, including 120th in rushing defense and 107th against the pass. Riley named defensive line coach Shaun Nua and linebackers coach Brian Odom as co-defensive coordinators for the rest of the season.

While QB Caleb Williams will not repeat as Heisman winner, he’s still No. 1 in the nation in points responsible for (232), points responsible for per game (23.2) and passing touchdowns (28), No. 2 in the nation in passing yards (2,958), No. 6 in the nation in passing efficiency (175.9), No. 9 in the nation in yards per pass attempt (9.48) and No. 10 in the nation in total offense (313.1). He is also tied for No. 1 in the Pac-12 in rushing touchdowns (10).

The Trojan offense is No. 2 in the nation for scoring offense (45.5), No. 3 in the nation for first downs offense (236), No. 5 in the nation for passing offense (326.7), No. 7 in the nation for team passing efficiency (172.53) and No. 8 in the nation for total offense (487.0).

Why Bet on the Oregon Ducks?

Oregon (8-1) is a game behind first-place Washington in the Pac-12 and if the Ducks win here, at Arizona State and home to Oregon State in the finale, they will be in the conference title game. They still can make it with a loss to USC but it would get very complicated.

Ducks QB Bo Nix is very much in the Heisman race. Nix leads the nation with a historic 78.1 completion percentage while ranking fourth in passer rating (180.14), fourth in passing touchdowns (25) and seventh in passing yards per game (302.6). The fifth-year senior has also rushed for five scores to rank third nationally with 30 total touchdowns, and he is seventh among all FBS players with 8.40 total yards per play. Nix is the only FBS quarterback with at least 25 passing touchdowns and two or fewer interceptions. That completion percentage would break the NCAA record of 77.4 set a few years ago by Alabama’s Mac Jones.

Star Ducks tailback Bucky Irving missed a practice early this week with a minor injury but will play. Oregon leads the Pac-12 with 208.11 rushing yards per game and leads the nation with 6.33 yards per carry through nine games. Irving (3rd, 824) and Jordan James (7th, 545) both rank in the top 10 of the Pac-12 in rushing yards.

The Ducks lead the nation in scoring offense at 47.4 PPG while ranking second in total offense at 538.7 YPG. Oregon has committed just four turnovers this season, tied with Penn State for fewest in the nation. Oregon is one of just three teams (Michigan, Texas) in the nation to score at least 30 points in every game this season. UO is one of just three teams (Michigan, Ohio State) to hold opponents to 10 points or less at least five times.

USC vs. Oregon Betting Trends

  • USC is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games.
  • Trojans are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games.
  • The total went over in 7 of Southern California’s last 7 games.
  • Oregon is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games.
  • Ducks are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games.
  • The total went over in 6 of Oregon’s last 8 games against USC.

USC vs. Oregon Expert Betting Predictions

Oregon 41, USC 31.

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