Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – May 6th, 2024

Monday is a big night for the Los Angeles Dodgers as one-time ace Walker Buehler makes his return from Tommy John surgery against the awful Miami Marlins, who made news of their own over the weekend by shockingly trading reigning batting champion Luis Arraez to San Diego. Here’s a look at two intriguing matchups early this week.

Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week (May 6th, 2024)

MLB power rankings: Los Angeles Dodgers finally bully their way to the top https://t.co/zYCXMJgYDF

— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) May 6, 2024

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

• When: Monday, May 6th, 2024, 6:10 PM ET
• Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
• TV: BSDET, BSGL, FS1
• Radio: WXYT-FM 97.1 (Tigers) // WTAM 1100 (Guardians)
• Live Stream: MLB.tv
• MLB Betting Odds: Tigers (+104) // Guardians (-119)

National TV game on Fox Sports 1. Will the Guardians have starting outfielder and leadoff hitter Steven Kwan available? He left Saturday’s game with a tight hamstring and didn’t play on Sunday. Kwan is off to a great start this season in batting .353. He leads the league in hits and already has seven three-hit games. He was to have an MRI on Sunday.

“I’ve had a history of hamstring issues before,” said Kwan. “We’re just trying to keep it safe.” Asked if he was concerned, “A hamstring (injury) is always concerning. Especially with my history. It’s not something to be optimistic about, but we’ll see.”

To lose him — hamstring injuries usually take between four and six weeks to heal — would be a blow to the AL Central leaders. If Kwan has to go on the injured list, the Guardians have some options to replace him. They could promote first base prospect Kyle Manzardo and use Gabriel Arias, Estevean Florial or Ramon Laureano in left field. Arias replaced Kwan when he left the game Saturday. Then Will Brennan came on as a defensive replacement.

Also monitor the status of Tigers infielder Wenceel Perez, a very pleasant surprise, batting .302 on the year. He was scratched from Sunday’s lineup against the Yankees due to an illness. Perez had two hits on Saturday, posting his fifth multi-hit game. Over his last 12 games, Pérez is batting .333/.417/.643 with two triples, three home runs and eight RBIs.

Monday marks the first meeting of the season between the AL Central rivals. Righty Triston McKenzie (2-2, 4.34) starts for Cleveland. McKenzie did not factor into the decision in a win over the Astros last Wednesday, allowing two runs on five hits and one walk over seven innings while striking out six. McKenzie was highly effective in striking out at least six batters for the third consecutive start, with five of those strikeouts coming on his curveball. He issued only one free pass in the contest, which marked a season best, while also going seven innings for the first time in the early campaign. McKenzie has not allowed more than two runs in any of his last three starts after surrendering a season-high five runs against the Yankees on April 13.

It’s Jack Flaherty (0-1, 4.00) for Detroit. Flaherty came away with a no-decision in the first game of last Tuesday’s doubleheader against the Cardinals, scattering two hits and a walk over 6.2 scoreless innings in a 2-1 loss. He struck out 14. Facing the team he spent the first six-plus seasons of his career with, the 28-year-old’s 14 strikeouts were a career high, topping the 13 he reached twice in 2018, and he tied Tyler Glasnow for the most in a start this season.

Flaherty also fanned the first seven batters he faced, tying the AL record most recently matched by Luis Castillo in 2022. Flaherty generated an eye-popping 24 swinging strikes among his 93 pitches, and he was in line for his first win of the season before Shelby Miller blew the save in the ninth. Flaherty is now second in the majors in strikeouts this season with 50.

MLB Betting Pick: Guardians

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies

• When: Tuesday, May 7th, 2024, 8:40 PM ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• TV: SN1, NBCSP
• Radio: Sportsnet 590 The FAN AM (Blue Jays) // WIP 94.1 FM (Phillies)
• Live Stream: MLB.tv
• MLB Betting Odds: TBA

Series opener. The Phillies got some awful news over the weekend as All-Star shortstop Trea Turner injured his hamstring and is expected to miss about six weeks.

Turner, 30, was off to a tremendous start to the season. In his first 33 games, he had hit .343/.392/.460 (145 OPS+) with two home runs and 10 stolen bases on 11 attempts. Turner’s contributions had already been worth an estimated 1.6 Wins Above Replacement. Turner led the Phillies with 27 runs scored because he was reaching base ahead of Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm. He was the prototypical No. 2 hitter for this lineup.

“It could have been a lot worse than it was,” Turner said Saturday, two hours after receiving his diagnosis. “It is what it is.”

Bohm was removed from Saturday’s game versus the Giants with right hip flexor tightness but is OK. With Turner out, the Phillies seem likely to employ Edmundo Sosa as their most-days shortstop. Second baseman Bryson Stott, who hasn’t played short since October 2022, said he would be open to taking reps there if needed. If Stott slides across the field, Whit Merrifield would see increased time at second base.

Blue Jays hitters rank 11th among AL clubs in road slugging this year (.351), while sitting 12th in road OPS (.646), 12th in road OBP (.294), and 13th in road average (.207). The pitching staff currently ranks 10th in road ERA (4.32), 12th in road WHIP (1.46), and 13th in road opponents’ average (.264). Defensively, Daulton Varsho has tallied eight defensive runs saved this year (five in left field, three in center field), tied for the second-most in the majors.

Jose Berrios (4-2) takes the hill for Toronto. Berrios (4-2) took the loss last Tuesday against the Royals, allowing two runs on five hits and a walk over seven innings. He struck out three. Berrios was solid in holding the Royals to two runs on a Michael Massey homer in the second inning en route to a sixth quality start in seven outings this year. However, the 29-year-old Berrios was ultimately stuck with a second straight loss to Kansas City. Berrios lowered his ERA to an excellent 1.44 with a 1.01 WHIP and 31:13 K:BB through 43.2 innings this season.

It’s expected to be Christopher Sanchez for Philadelphia with Spencer Turnbull being shifted from the rotation to the bullpen despite a stellar 1.67 ERA in 32.1 innings. The team wants to keep an eye on his workload since he hasn’t thrown more than 56.2 innings in a season since 2019. Sanchez (1-3, 3.68) allowed five runs (one earned) on four hits in three innings in a loss to the Reds last Tuesday. m. The lefty’s velocity was up one mph from his previous start but he had trouble commanding his changeup and recorded three walks to go with his four strikeouts.

MLB Betting Pick: Phillies

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