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Missouri vs. Kentucky 2023 College Football Week 7 Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine

The loser of Saturday’s matchup between unranked Missouri and No. 24 Kentucky from Lexington has no shot of winning the SEC East Division. The Wildcats are short home favorites to keep their slim hopes alive.

Missouri Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats Game Information

  • When: Saturday, October 14, 2023, 7:30 PM ET
  • Where: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
  • TV: SEC Network
  • Radio: 96.7 KCMQ FM (Missouri) // 98.1 The Bull (Kentucky)
  • Live Stream: SEC Network
  • College Football Odds: Missouri (+2.5) // Kentucky (-2.5)

Why Bet on the Missouri Tigers?

Missouri (5-1) fell out of the Top 25 following a 49-39 home loss to No. 23 LSU on Saturday. LSU was down 39-35 before Jayden Daniels threw a touchdown pass to wide-open Malik Nabers with 2:58 to go. That sent the Tigers defense onto the field, and it proceeded to force Missouri into a failed fourth-down on its first opportunity with the ball, then got a pick-six from safety Major Burns on its next chance that ultimately clinched the win.

Daniels bedeviled Mizzou all day, completing 15-of-21 passes for 259 yards and three touchdowns and running 15 times for 130 yards and a score. Three times in the second half he made big plays that gave LSU the lead. Missouri led by 15 points, 22-7, midway through the second quarter and took a 32-27 advantage into the final frame. However, LSU scored 22 points in the fourth, including two touchdowns in the final three minutes. Two prolific offenses produced 1,060 total yards – LSU 533, MU 527 – and the lead changed hands five times in the second half.

Missouri’s Brady Cook completed 30-of-47 passes for 395 yards, equaling his career high and going over 300 yards for the fourth straight week. But he also threw his first two interceptions of the season, and LSU turned both into touchdowns. His SEC record streak of consecutive passes without an interception came to an end at 365.

Luther Burden III extended a pair of noteworthy streaks, recording his fifth straight 100-yard receiving game, as well as his seventh consecutive contest with at least seven receptions with an 11-reception, 149-yard afternoon. Burden III’s yardage total established a new career high against SEC foes, surpassing his previous best of 140 vs. Vanderbilt last week.

Mizzou’s offense converted on all four of their red-zone opportunities in the contest and topped the 500-yard mark for total offense for the third straight game. Harrison Mevis converted a 50-yard field goal to conclude the first half, marking his program-record 12th successful kick of 50-yards or more as a Tiger, doubling the career total of the No. 2 kicker on Mizzou’s all-time list (Tom Whelihan).

The game was Mizzou’s first at home as an AP ranked team since a 9-6 victory over UConn on Sept. 19, 2015; the Tigers are now 67-25 in such contests.

Why Bet on the Kentucky Wildcats?

Kentucky (5-1) was crushed 51-13 at No. 1 Georgia on Saturday. Coming off a stunning rout of Florida the previous week, UK carried none of the momentum it had from that game, allowing Georgia to score on all six of its first-half possessions and trailing 34-7 at intermission.

“They beat us in every area,” Wildcats coach Mark Stoops said. “We need to get back to work and be a better football team,” Stoops said. “We’ve got to get back to being who we are. We’ve got to get back to controlling the things that we can control. That’s how we prepare. We’ve got to get some guys healthy. We’ve got to have a great week of practice.”

Kentucky QB Devin Leary went 10 of 26 through the air for 128 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Ray Davis rushed 15 times for 59 yards and caught two passes for 36 yards and a touchdown. Davis now has a touchdown in each of Kentucky’s first six games of the season, making him the only Wildcat to do that in program history (with single-game statistics available to the 1940s).

Defensively, UK has forced at least one turnover in each of the first six games for the first time since 2017. UK has forced 10 turnovers in the first six games, most in its first six games since 2017 (12).

“We’ve got to be ready for a very big game here this week,” Stoops said. “Both teams coming in here at 5-1. I’ve been very impressed with Missouri and the way they’re playing. Their quarterback, Brady Cook, has been exceptional. Their wide receiver, Luther Burden is a super player and they’re playing at a high level.

Kentucky leads the all-time series 9-5 after winning 21-7 in Columbia last year. While Missouri held the Wildcats to just 242 offensive yards, yielding just 4.1 yards per play, quarterback Will Levis and the Kentucky offense converted 6 of 13 third downs, including reaching the end zone twice on completions. Chris Rodriguez Jr. rushed 29 times for 112 yards in the game, while freshman Dane Key caught four passes for 53 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including the game winner. Missouri had 232 yards as the Kentucky defense sacked Cook twice, had 9 tackles for loss, and recovered two fumbles.

Missouri vs. Kentucky Betting Trends

  • Missouri is 5-1 SU in the last 6 games.
  • Missouri are 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against Kentucky.
  • The total went over in 5 of Missouri’s last 6 games.
  • Kentucky is 5-1 SU in the last 6 games.
  • Kentucky is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
  • The total went under in 15 of Kentucky’s last 20 games.

Missouri vs. Kentucky Expert Betting Predictions

Kentucky 27, Missouri 20.

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