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Dolphins vs. Bills 2023 NFL Wild Card Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine

The Miami Dolphins were able to grab the AFC’s final Wild Card spot in Week 18 for their first playoff berth since 2016 but the stay figures to be short as the Fins have major QB questions and are big underdogs for Sunday’s game at AFC East champion Buffalo.

These teams split two regular-season meetings. In Week 3 in Miami, the Fins won 21-19. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa briefly left the game in the second quarter, returning after halftime despite appearing to be disoriented by a head injury and finished with 186 yards and a touchdown pass to River Cracraft. Chase Edmonds put Miam up 21-17 on a 3-yard run with 10:05 left. The Bills cut the deficit to two points late with a safety but the game ended with Josh Allen desperately trying to spike the football on the edge of field goal range. Buffalo ran 90 plays compared to 39 for Miami, outgaining the Dolphins 497 yards to 212.

In Week 15 in the snow in Buffalo, the Bills won 32-29. They overcame an eight-point deficit with Allen overseeing scoring drives on the final two possessions, capped by Tyler Bass hitting a 25-yard field goal as time expired. Allen had four TD passes overall. Tagovailoa finished 17 of 30 for 234 yards and two touchdowns, including a 67-yarder to Jaylen Waddle.

Nitrobetting is ready to equip its bettors with the latest news, NFL odds, and special features for the entire duration of the 2022 NFL season. This time, let’s take a closer look at the upcoming Wild Card showdown between the Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills.

Dolphins vs. Bills NFL Wild Card Game Information

READ MORE: Seahawks vs. 49ers 2023 NFL Wild Card Odds, Preview & Pick

Why Bet on the Miami Dolphins?

Alas, Tagovailoa will not play for the third straight game Sunday due to a concussion. The third-year pro has been in the concussion protocol since Dec. 26 after suffering his second documented concussion of the season the day before in a loss to the Green Bay Packers. The Fins are preparing for rookie Skylar Thompson to make his third career start Sunday; veteran Teddy Bridgewater is working his way back from a dislocated pinkie on his throwing hand, and his possible availability is unclear. Thompson was 20-for-31 for 156 yards in an 11-6 win over the Jets in Week 18. That win and New England’s loss in Buffalo earned the Dolphins a Wild Card spot.

Kicker Jason Sanders nailed a game-winning 50-yard field goal with 18 seconds remaining to lead the win over the Jets – Miami added a safety as time expired. It marked the seventh game-winning/game-tying field goal of Sanders’ career, and it came on a day when the five-year NFL veteran scored more than three-fourths of the Dolphins’ points by making all three of his field goal attempts. Receivers Tyreek Hill and Waddle also made NFL history by recording the third-most receiving yards by two teammates in one season with 3,066.

Head coach Mike McDaniel is the sixth coach in franchise history to register a winning season in his first year and the fifth coach to reach the playoffs in his first season – a list that includes the great Don Shula.

Why Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars?

Buffalo is the AFC East champion and No. 2 seed in the conference. Allen, who had 4,283 passing yards and 35 touchdown passes this season, is the sixth player in NFL history with at least three career seasons with 4,000 passing yards and 35 touchdown passes, joining Aaron Rodgers (six seasons), Tom Brady (five), Patrick Mahomes (four), Peyton Manning (four) and Drew Brees (four). Allen, who also had seven rushing touchdowns this season, is the first player in NFL history with three career seasons with 35 touchdown passes and five rushing touchdowns.

In his first six playoff starts, Allen has totaled 1,718 passing yards (286.3 per game) with 14 touchdowns against one interception for a 106.6 rating, the highest passer rating in postseason history among quarterbacks who have started at least five games. He also has 371 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, and one receiving touchdown in his playoff career.

Allen can join Matt Ryan as the only players ever with at least 300 passing yards and three touchdown passes in three consecutive postseason games. He can also become the first player in NFL history with at least four touchdown passes in three consecutive playoff games.

Dolphins vs. Bills Betting Trends

  • Dolphins are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 vs. AFC East.
  • The total went over in 6 of Miami’s last 7 games on the road.
  • Bills are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 games in January.
  • The total went over in 11 of Buffalo’s last 16 games against Miami.

Dolphins vs. Bills Expert Betting Predictions

Bills 24, Dolphins 10.

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*All stated odds are subject to change without prior notice.