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Baylor vs. Oklahoma State 2021 Big 12 Championship Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine

Since the Big 12 Championship Game was reinstated in 2017, a school from Oklahoma won it all five times. That would be the Oklahoma Sooners. However, they are not in this year’s game but Oklahoma State could carry on the “tradition” as the No. 5 Cowboys face No. 9 Baylor on Saturday from Dallas.

While he would never say so, Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby is rooting for Oklahoma State in this game. Why? If the Cowboys win, they probably will reach the College Football Playoff for the first time – the only Big 12 school to make it has been Oklahoma. If Baylor wins, the Big 12 is most likely left out because the Bears are too far down at No. 9 in the CFP Top 25.

All teams in the Big 12 play one another in the regular season and back on Oct. 2, Oklahoma State beat visiting Baylor 24-14. Jaylen Warren ran for 125 yards and two touchdowns. Spencer Sanders passed for 182 yards and ran for 76 but did have three picks. Abram Smith rushed for 97 yards and a touchdown for Baylor, which finished with just 280 total yards. The Bears entered the game averaging 42.8 points. That win improved Oklahoma State to 22-18 all-time vs. Baylor and gave it two straight wins vs. Baylor for the first time since OSU won six straight from 2006-11.

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Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Game Information

  • When: Saturday, December 4, 12:00 pm ET
  • Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
  • TV: ABC
  • Radio: SPORTS RADIO ESPN 1420 (Baylor) / HOT 93.7 KSPI-FM (Oklahoma State)
  • Live Stream: WatchESPN
  • College Football Odds: Baylor (+5.5) / Oklahoma State (-5.5)

Why Bet on the Baylor Bears?

Will Baylor have starting QB Gerry Bohanon for this game? He missed last week’s 27-24 win over Texas Tech due to injury and is questionable for this one. Redshirt freshman Blake Shapen started against the Red Raiders and threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns in his first career start.

Bohanon has thrown for 2,192 yards with 17 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season. He also has 303 yards and nine TDs rushing. Baylor is playing in its second Big 12 championship game in three seasons. In the 2019 title game against Oklahoma, Bohanon played for injured Charlie Brewer and was 4-of-15 passing for 56 yards with a touchdown in the 30-23 overtime loss. He had 15 yards rushing.

Baylor defensive back Jalen Pitre was named the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. Pitre led the league with 15.5 tackles for loss as part of his 63 total tackles on the year. He also added three forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, 2.5 sacks, two interceptions and five pass breakups. A Jim Thorpe Award finalist, Pitre is the nation’s only player to record at least three fumble recoveries, three forced fumbles and two interceptions in 2021.

Baylor is 1 of 5 teams to not allow more than 30 points this season (BU, UGA, Cincy, Clemson, Iowa). BU’s defense is holding opponents to 11.6 points/game below their scoring averages in all other games. Baylor is 1 of 6 Power-5 teams ranked top-30 nationally in scoring offense and defense (BU, Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Utah). BU is 30th in offense (33.4) and 17th in defense (19.4).

Why Bet on the Oklahoma State Cowboys?

Oklahoma State (11-1) beat Oklahoma last week but already had clinched a spot in this game before that. The Pokes’ only loss was at Iowa State. Mike Gundy was named Big 12 Coach of the Year. Running back Jaylen Warren was Big 12 Newcomer of the Year.

OSU is the only FBS team with two wins over opponents ranked in the top 10 of the current College Football Playoff ranking and joins Georgia and Alabama as the only teams with four wins over opponents ranked in the AP top 25 at the time of the game. Oklahoma State ranks No. 1 in the Big 12 in rushing offense, No. 2 in total offense and No. 3 in scoring offense.

OSU is averaging more than 40 points and more than 450 yards of offense in its past five games. It has outscored its last five opponents by a combined margin of 202-56, which amounts to an average score of 40-11. In that span, OSU has thrown 12 touchdown passes against just three interceptions.

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Betting Trends

  • Bears are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
  • Baylor is 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • The total went under in 4 of Baylor’s last 5 games.
  • Cowboys are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
  • OSU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
  • The total went under in 4 of Oklahoma State’s last 6 games against Baylor.

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Expert Betting Predictions

2021 Big 12 Championship Prediction: Oklahoma State 27, Baylor 20

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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.