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2023 College Football Week 11 Odds, Overview & Picks

By Jeff Stinger

There were no earth-shattering upsets around college football in Week 10 so the Top 4 of the new College Football Rankings are unchanged: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 Florida State. Here’s a look at three intriguing Week 11 games on Saturday and our picks.

Top 2023 College Football Week 11 Games to Bet

READ MORE: 2023 College Football Week 11 Sleeper Picks

Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Huge game in the Big Ten. Penn State has never played in the conference title game or in the College Football Playoff but has a shot at both if it pulls the upset and gets some help. Unbeaten Michigan has won the Big Ten the past two years and reached the playoff in both and will again if it wins out. This will be the fourth time that U-M and PSU meet as top-10 ranked teams (U-M leads 2-1). Michigan and Penn State are both ranked in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense. U-M has scored 40+ in five straight Big Ten games. QB J.J. McCarthy is second in the NCAA in pass efficiency (188.7 rating). RB Blake Corum leads the nation in total TDs and rushing TDs (16). Michigan’s defense leads the NCAA in scoring defense, total defense, pass defense and first downs allowed.

After holding Maryland to -49 rushing yards last time out, Penn State leads the country in rushing defense, allowing just 60.3 rushing yards per game. The Nittany Lions have held each of its last eight opponents under 100 rushing yards, the longest active streak in the FBS. Contributing to PSU’s rushing defense is the Nittany Lions’ ability to make plays in the backfield. Penn State paces the nation in sacks per game (4.2) and ranks fourth in tackles for loss per game (8.4). PSU is tied first among FBS teams with 24 players who have recorded at least a full tackle for loss and leads the FBS with 19 players who have recorded at least one full sack. Penn State ranks third nationally in scoring defense (11.9 avg.) and sixth in scoring offense (40.2 avg.). This will be the 27th meeting between Michigan and Penn State. The Wolverines have a 16-10 advantage in the all-time series, with a 7-6 mark at Beaver Stadium. Michigan has a 7-3 advantage in games decided by seven points or less and has a 2-1 mark in games decided by three or fewer points. Coach Jim Harbaugh has a 2-2 record at State College.

2023 College Football Week 11 Pick: Penn State

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kentucky Wildcats

SEC matchup as Bama looks to take another step toward the SEC West title, while Kentucky is simply trying to improve its bowl standing. : Alabama and Kentucky will meet for the 42nd time and the first time in Lexington since 2013. The Crimson Tide lead 38-2-1 all-time, including a 15-2 mark in Lexington. The Tide are riding a seven-game winning streak against the Cats dating back to 2003. Nick Saban is 8-0 for his career against UK. Since Saban’s arrival in Tuscaloosa, the Crimson Tide have a 46-5 (.902) record against SEC Eastern Division opponents. Alabama has won 17 straight against unranked opponents and is 121-4 (.968) against unranked opponents under Saban. Quarterback Jalen Milroe has responded in a big way the last six weeks since losing his starting job for the USF game. The redshirt sophomore has led Alabama to six straight SEC victories. Since his return to the lineup, Milroe is averaging 231.2 passing yards per game (1,387 total) while completing 66.4 percent of his passes and accounting for 15 total touchdowns (eight passing).

Kentucky is coming off a win at Mississippi State, 24-3, last Saturday. It was the fewest points allowed by UK in an SEC road game in 44 years, since a 31-3 win at Florida in 1979. It was the first time that UK held an SEC opponent without a touchdown since a 24-2 win over Mississippi State in the 2020 season. In quarterback Devin Leary’s last two games, he has completed 41 of his 61 passing attempts (67.2 percent), with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Through Week 10, running back Ray Davis has 903 yards on 148 carries and nine touchdowns rushing. He also has 227 yards on 19 catches and five touchdowns receiving. He is ranked in the top five in the SEC in six statistical categories. Kentucky is currently ranked fourth in the Southeastern Conference and 21st in the nation in rushing defense, allowing opponents to just 110.8 yards per game in 2023. The Wildcats have held seven of their last 10 opponents to under 100 yards rushing. Kentucky has four defensive touchdowns this season, tied with six others for the most in the nation.

2023 College Football Week 11 Pick: Kentucky

Texas Longhorns vs. TCU Horned Frogs

  • When: Saturday, November 11th, 2023. 7:30pm EST
  • Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
  • College Football Odds: Texas (-10.5) // TCU (+10.5)

Final meeting between these in-state rivals likely for many years with Texas set to leave the Big 12 after this year for the SEC. UT controls its destiny to reach the Big 12 title game, while TCU needs two wins just to get bowl eligible and that’s unlikely. Texas is ranked in the AP Top-10 for the ninth consecutive week, the longest single-season stretch for the Longhorns since 2009. The Longhorns’ 8-1 start is the best for the program since 2009. Texas is 5-1 in Big 12 Conference play, the best start for the team since 2013. RB Jonathon Brooks surpassed 1,000 rushing yards for the season in last week’s victory over Kansas State, marking the 12th consecutive year a Steve Sarkisian offense (as head coach or offensive coordinator) has had a 1,000-yard rusher. The Longhorns are one of three teams to score at least 30 points in each of their first nine games of the season. The other two are Michigan and Oregon. UT has scored at least 30 points in 11 of the last 12 games and 18 of 22 games since the start of the 2022 season.

The Frogs are down a few injured receivers this week and Josh Hoover will remain the team’s starting QB. With previous starter Chandler Morris continuing to work his way back from injury, Hoover will get the start against the Longhorns. The redshirt freshman signal caller is the first TCU quarterback since at least 2005 to pass for 300-plus yards in two of his first three career starts. He is only the fifth Big 12 signal caller since 2018 to accomplish the feat. TCU is 11-4 in Big 12 regular-season games under Coach Sonny Dykes. The Frogs are 17-1 under Dykes when ahead or even in turnover margin. Texas and TCU will play for the 94th time in series history. Texas has only played Oklahoma (119), Texas A&M (118), Baylor (113) and Rice (97) on more occasions. The Longhorns lead the all-time series 64-28-1 with a 28-12 advantage in Fort Worth. Each of the last three have been by one-score games.

2023 College Football Week 11 Pick: TCU

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