Home | News | Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – July 1st, 2024

Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – July 1st, 2024

By Jeff Stinger

This is one of the biggest weeks of the season in Major League Baseball because of the July 4 holiday, which is generally assumed as the halfway point of the season even if clubs will have played more than 81 of their 162 games. Here’s a look at two intriguing early-week matchups, with many Americans on vacation for all of it.

Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week (July 1st, 2024)

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals

  • When: Monday, July 1st, 2024, 6:45 PM ET
  • Where: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
  • Radio: WCBS 880 AM (Mets) // 106.7 The Fan FM (Nationals)
  • Live Stream: MLB.tv
  • MLB Betting Odds: Mets (-1.5) // Washington (+1.5)

The Mets are playing their best ball of the season to get into the NL wild card hunt. That means the team will not be a seller ahead of the trade deadline at the end of the month but perhaps a buyer. The club remains without former All-Star closer Edwin Diaz for this series due to a 10-game suspension. The Mets are now missing six of the eight relievers who were on the Opening Day roster, so that might be an area where they add a player via trade. Injuries have forced the Mets to rely heavily on pitchers such as Reed Garrett and Danny Young in high-leverage spots, and they have struggled at times.

“We’re going to need guys to step up,” GM David Stearns said. “This is not unique to us. Bullpens throughout baseball change over the course of the year. Relievers, unfortunately, get hurt over the course of the year. There’s underperformance over the course of the year. And we’re going to need guys to step up.”

Outfielder Starling Marte, having a solid offensive season, is out about a month with a knee issue. This marks Marte’s eighth trip to the injured list since 2016. He is batting .278/.328/.416 in 66 games this season, with negative defensive metrics. Tyrone Taylor and DJ Stewart will primarily take Marte’s role.

It’s lefty David Peterson on the mound Monday. Peterson (3-0) came away with a no-decision in last Tuesday’s 9-7 win over the Yankees, allowing one run on three hits and five walks over 4.1 innings. He struck out eight. Despite being staked to a 6-0 lead by the end of the fourth inning, Peterson wasn’t efficient enough to qualify for his fourth straight win, as he needed 103 pitches (62 strikes) to record his 13 outs.

He has walked multiple batters in four straight outings but has mostly been able to limit the damage, and he’ll take a 3.67 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 20:13 K:BB through 27 innings into Monday. While his ERA remains at 3.67, his FIP of 5.00 suggests he may be benefiting from some good fortune. Peterson is 4-1 with a 3.53 ERA in 10 career appearances vs Washington.

The Nats will be calling up one of the top slugging prospects in MLB for Monday in James Wood. He was one of the key pieces back from San Diego in the 2022 deal that sent Juan Soto to the Padres. In late May this year, he suffered a hamstring injury and missed close to a month, but he returned to the field and has looked no worse for wear. Through 51 Triple-A games this season, Wood sports a monster line of .346/.458/.578. That includes 10 home runs, 10 steals and a 17.3% walk rate. He’s also trimmed his strikeout rate to a tidy 18.2% level. A powerful left-handed hitter, Wood has hit 51 home runs in his minor league career, including 26 a season ago.

It’s lefty MacKenzie Gore on the mound Monday. He was also part of that Soto deal. Gore (6-7) allowed five runs on five hits and three walks while striking out one over five innings to take the loss last Tuesday versus the Padres. Gore struggled against the team that drafted him, as the Padres put up multiple runs in the first and fifth innings.

He may have been rattled by the two teams clearing the benches in the first inning after Keibert Ruiz and Jurickson Profar exchanged words — Gore’s next pitch hit Profar on the back foot, and the one after that was crushed by Manny Machado for a two-run homer. Gore lost three of his five starts in June, giving up 18 runs (17 earned) over 26.1 innings. He’s now at a 3.81 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 99:28 K:BB through 85 innings across 16 starts on the year.

Gore has made four career appearances vs. the Mets, including one this year, and is 1-2 with a 4.66 ERA.

MLB Betting Pick: Nationals

Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners

  • When: Tuesday, July 2nd, 2024, 9:40 PM ET
  • Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
  • Radio: 98 Rock FM (Orioles) // KIRO 710 AM (Mariners)
  • Live Stream: MLB.tv
  • MLB Betting Odds: TBA

This could be an AL playoff preview as the Orioles led the AL East Division and the Mariners are atop the AL West – we think both are in the postseason even if they don’t hold onto the division lead. The Orioles definitely will be looking at pitching ahead of the trade deadline, with starters Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells and John Means lost for the season. Righty Dean Kremer is on the IL and recently had a setback. You also hear the O’s could look at center field in the trade market and have been targeting the White Sox’s Luis Robert.

If Seattle does anything, it probably will be to add a bat. The bullpen has help on the way in Gregory Santos. He continued to show improvement during his second live batting practice session over the weekend. The hard-throwing righty has been battling a strained latissimus dorsi all season, which has postponed the debut of the Mariners’ offseason acquisition. He will begin a minor-league rehab assignment on Tuesday. Santos, who carried a 3.39 ERA with 66 strikeouts to just 17 walks for the White Sox last year, said he is focused on getting his slider back to where it used to be.

These clubs played three games at Camden Yards from May 17-19 and the Orioles won two. Seattle is 40-15 (.727) when its starting pitchers go 6.0+ innings this season, and 35-3 (.921) when out-hitting its opponent. The Mariners have 17 comeback wins this season, including 7 when trailing after the 7th inning. Seattle has started the season with 3 consecutive winning months for the 5th time in franchise history (2001-03, ’18, ’24).

It’s stellar young righty George Kirby on the mound Tuesday for the Mariners. Kirby (7-5, 3.35 ERA) allowed one run on four hits while striking out seven over six innings to earn the win last Wednesday over the Rays. Kirby managed to get through six innings for his third win in his last five starts. Kirby has been on a tear, allowing two runs or fewer in six consecutive starts, posting a 1.70 ERA with three walks and 40 strikeouts in that span. He has the third-best ERA in MLB since May. Kirby is 1-3 with a 4.02 ERA in five career appearances vs. the Orioles.

Baltimore right-hander Grayson Rodriguez (9-3) earned the win over Cleveland last Wednesday, allowing two runs on five hits and no walks while striking out four batters over seven innings. Rodriguez was tagged for seven runs over five innings against Houston during his previous trip to the mound, but he was much better Wednesday, notching his seventh quality start of the campaign and his ninth victory.

Rodriguez did give up two home runs, but both were of the solo variety, and they accounted for the only scores the Guardians managed against him. Rodriguez has been good at limiting long balls this season — Wednesday marked just the second time he has allowed multiple homers — and he’s completed at least five frames in all but one of his 14 starts. He holds a 3.72 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 89:25 K:BB across 82.1 innings. Rodriguez took a no-decision vs. Seattle on May 8 despite six shutout innings.

MLB Betting Pick: Mariners

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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.

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