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Buffalo Bills 2023 NFL Season Betting Guide

By Hank Blaine

Buffalo started last season the favorite to win the Super Bowl. But after another somewhat disappointing regular season and playoffs, Buffalo will start the 2023 season under the radar. Did the Bills make enough moves during the offseason to be a betting power house this season? Keep reading for a Buffalo Bills NFL Regular Season schedule and Bills straight up, against the spread and over under total predictions.

Buffalo Bills 2023 NFL Season Betting Predictions

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Buffalo Bills 2023 NFL Schedule

  • NFL Week 1: at New York Jets — 8:15 p.m. (ESPN/ABC)
  • NFL Week 2: vs. Las Vegas Raiders — 1:00 p.m. (CBS)
  • NFL Week 3: at Washington Commanders — 1:00 p.m. (CBS)
  • NFL Week 4: vs. Miami Dolphins — 1:00 p.m. (CBS)
  • NFL Week 5: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars — 9:30 a.m. (NFLN)
  • NFL Week 6: vs. New York Giants — 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
  • NFL Week 7: at New England Patriots — 1:00 p.m. (CBS)
  • NFL Week 8: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
  • NFL Week 9: at Cincinnati Bengals — 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
  • NFL Week 10: vs. Denver Broncos — 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
  • NFL Week 11: vs. New York Jets — 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
  • NFL Week 12: at Philadelphia Eagles — 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
  • NFL Week 13: BYE
  • NFL Week 14: at Kansas City Chiefs — 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
  • NFL Week 15: vs. Dallas Cowboys — 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
  • NFL Week 16: at Los Angeles Chargers — 8:00 p.m. (Peacock)
  • NFL Week 17: vs. New England Patriots — 1 p.m. (CBS)
  • NFL Week 18: at Miami Dolphins — TBD (TBD)

Buffalo Bills 2023 Straight-Up Overview

Josh Allen remains a good quarterback, but he appears to be regressing. Allen threw 14 interceptions last season. More disturbing if you’re a Bills’ fan is how Josh completed just 63.3% of his passes.

Allen completed less than 60% of his passes in a playoff win against Miami and the playoff loss to Cincinnati. In 2021, Allen also completed 63.3% of his passes during the regular season. But in the playoffs, he completed close to 80% of his passes in a win against the Patriots and a loss to the Chiefs.

So what’s going on with the Bills’ offense? For starters, Buffalo lost offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the New York Giants before the start of last season.

That has something to do with it. But o-coordinator Ken Dorsey didn’t change much regarding the scheme. So Allen’s troubles could be because he’s simply regressing.

If that’s the case, it won’t matter how good Buffalo’s defense or the talent surrounding Allen on the offense. If defensive coordinators have figured Allen out, the Bills won’t be nearly as successful in 2023 as they were in 2021 and 2022.

Buffalo should lose 7 games this season. They will lose on the road against the Patriots, Dolphins, and Jets. The bills will lose road games to the Eagles, Chiefs, and Chargers and an NFL Week 15 home game versus the Dallas Cowboys.

Buffalo Bills 2023 SU Record Prediction: 10-7

Buffalo Bills 2023 Against the Spread Overview

Buffalo went 8-7-1 against the spread last season. This season, the Bills could be better against the spread, but it’s not likely. In fact, Buffalo should be worse ATS in 2023 than they were in 2022.

The Bills have attracted a lot of money to win Super Bowl 58. So much money has gone to Buffalo that they’ve become the third choice behind the Chiefs and Eagles and ahead of the 49ers.

Super Bowl action is an indication that many plan on backing Buffalo to cover spreads this season. But if Allen has regressed, the Bills will struggle to cover even low spread lines. Oddsmakers may not adjust until the second half of the season, which means Buffalo could end up covering in 7 to 8 games.

Buffalo Bills ATS Record Prediction: 7-10

Buffalo Bills 2023 Over/Under Overview

The Bills defense ranked second in points scored. Buffalo’s defense ranked second in points allowed. The over went 6-10, which means although Buffalo averaged over 28 points per game, the average was skewed by 8 games where Buffalo scored 30 or more points.

Oddsmakers should have a better idea of Buffalo’s true over under total odds in 2023 than they did in 2022. So we should expect an 8-9 or 9-8 over-to-under record.

Buffalo Bills 2023 Over/Under Record Prediction: 8-9

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READ MORE: Buffalo Bills 2023 Season Win/Loss Total